MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
States from Canada, adjusted to eliminate the influence of typical
seasonal variation, are compared with employment conditions in
the United States and Canada, respectively. Employment conditions
 in Canada are represented by the percentage of unemployment
 among trade union members (with the signs reversed
so that severe unemployment is represented by a depression in the
curve and vice versa). Employment in the United States is represented
 by the ‘labor market” index previously described.
The major depression of 1921 and the lesser decline in 1923 are
common to employment in both countries. Both are above average
in 1919 and the first half of 1920, begin to decline in 1920 to a low
point in 1921, with a recovery beginning in 1921 and continuing
through 1922 and part of 1923, followed by a moderate decline.
In 1920, the downturn in employment came about three months
Jater in Canada than it did in the United States.
To summarize, in the years from 1919 to 1922, inclusive, immigration
 from Canada tended to be greatest when employment
was good in both countries and to be low when employment was at
a minimum. For Canada in these years, it would appear that it is
good prospects in the country receiving the immigration, rather
than distress in the home country of the prospective immigrant,
which cause cyclical fluctuations in immigration. However, the
upward movement of Canadian immigration in 1923 is not consistent
 with this principle, inasmuch as employment in the United
States evidences a cyclical decline subsequent to April of that year.
In Chapter VIII, we return to this problem of the relative influence
of conditions in the country of immigration and the country of
emigration.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Fluctuations in migration in the war and post-war periods are
dominated by non-economic influences to a much larger extent
than in the pre-war period. Nevertheless when the effect of the
economic factors has been as far as possible isolated, we find in the
post-war period much the same relation between employment and
migration as in the pre-war years. An increase in employment is
reflected, somewhat later, in an increase in immigration and a decrease
 in emigration.

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