INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 193
In fact in some instances, the emigration movement precedes the
corresponding change in pig iron production. For example, emigration
 reached high points in 1872 and 1881, and a low level in
1894, while the corresponding points in the pig iron curves are in
1873, 1882, and 1895, respectively.
The suggestion conveyed by the analysis of these two sections of
the chart is that cyclical fluctuations in industrial conditions in the
United States and Germany are substantially similar but that in
some instances the United States movement anticipates the German
movement by about a year, and that coincident high industrial
activity in the two countries is accompanied by large emigration
from Germany and an industrial depression by small emigration.
This apparent dominance of the ‘pull over the push’ may find
some explanation in the fact that the fluctuations in industrial
conditions in the United States appear more violent than those in
Germany. This is illustrated by the comparison of the two pig
iron curves in the lower section of Chart 44, expressed as percentage
deviations from seven-year moving averages. As a rule, the American
 curve rises higher in prosperity and falls further in depression,
so that even when industrial expansion in the two countries coincides,
 the greater volume of the American fluctuation affords one
logical explanation of its effectiveness in attracting an increase in
immigration from Germany.
Employment in Germany and the United States (Chart 45)
A comparison of employment conditions in the United States
and Germany, by quarters, from 1901 to 1908, affords an opportunity
 for further study of a period which is marked by substantial
differences in the concurrent status of industry in these two countries.
 From 1901 to 1904, inclusive, the cyclical movement of
quarterly employment in Germany was, on the whole, contrary to
the corresponding movement in the United States, particularly in
1902, which was a year of low employment in Germany but a boom
year in the United States. In 1905 to 1908, on the other hand, the
two employment curves show better agreement, though the German
labor market does not exhibit a recovery movement in the second
half of 1908 such as occurred in the United States.
~ The cyclical movement in emigration from Germany appears
in this period to be determined by, or at least to vary with, employment
 conditions in the United States. With the exception of
minor irregularities and an occasional lag of from one to three