MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
pared the general tenor of crop reports with the current volume of 
emigration, and also with the changes in emigration in the following 
year, inasmuch as the effect of crop failures, if any, would not, in 
many cases, be fully effective upon emigration until the succeeding 
year. We find no close or consistent relationship between harvests 
and emigration. Poor crop years are sometimes years of low, 
sometimes of high, emigration. They are sometimes followed by 
increased emigration, but almost equally often by decreased emi- 
gration. Similarly, years of excellent crops are sometimes accom- 
panied or immediately followed by rising emigration, in other years 
by declining emigration. 
To illustrate, poor crops in 1873 are followed, in the succeeding 
year, by a sharp cyclical drop in emigration, in 1874 by a mild 
drop, in 1880 by a sharp rise, in 1881 by a drop, in 1886, 1889, and 
1891, by a moderate rise. Likewise, in about fifty per cent of the 
cases in which good or excellent crops are reported, the cyclical 
change in emigration in the following year is a decrease; in the other 
fifty per cent, an increase. 
IMMIGRATION FROM ITALY 
The flow of immigration from Italy to the United States from 
1870 to 1914 was characterized by a pronounced upward trend, both 
in actual numbers and in proportion to the total immigration to 
this country. In fact, in recent decades Italy has become the 
largest single contributor to the stream of immigrants entering the 
United States. In the twenty-four years ending June 30, 1924, about 
three and one half million immigrants designated Italy as their 
country of origin or of last permanent residence. A large proportion 
of these, however, subsequently returned to their native land. The 
immigration movement from Italy has also been characterized by a 
strong cyclical movement, which fact suggests the special desirabil- 
ity of a comparison between it and cycles in economic activity in 
the United States and Italy. 
Business Cycles in Italy and the United States (Chart 41) 
We have previously noted, in comparing business cycles in the 
United States with those in important European countries, that 
the cycles in Italy, either because of the less adequate information 
8See Chart 43. 
158ee Charts 33 and 35, in the early part of this chapter. 
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