MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
in pig iron production may be explainable largely by the fact that
he bulk of the immigrants credited to any fiscal year actually
rrive in the second half of the year, that is, between January an
une, inclusive, so that, for example, the effect of the industrial
oom indicated by pig iron production in 1909 would, if there is
ittle or no lag in its effect on immigration, be evident in the imigration
 for the year ending June 30, 19009.
Crop values, as portrayed in the lower section of Chart 47, are
ore erratic in their fluctuations than pig iron production. Never,
in the thirty years covered, is the direction of change constant for
ore than two years. Also, the degree of agreement between crop
alues and pig iron production is relatively low. Nor is there close
greement between immigration and crop values.» However, if
mmigration (fiscal years) is compared with crop values of the year
erminating six months earlier, there is evident in several instances
tendency for poor crops to be followed by an increase in immigraion
 and vice versa. For example the immigration curve rises in
890, 1893, 1900, 1903, 1905, 1907, 1909, and 1913, while the crop
alue curve shows a decline for the preceding year. Also, in 1892,
897, 1904, 1908, and 1912, the immigration curve declines while
he crop value curve rises in the preceding year. |
But are these years in which relatively poor crops are followed by
n increased emigration, or good crops by decreased emigration,
Iso years in which immigration from Italy is not well explained by
he changes in industrial activity in the United States? On the
ontrary, in all of the fourteen years just mentioned but 1905 and
909, an increase in Italian immigration to the United States is
receded by an increase in pig iron production, or a decrease in such
immigration by a decrease in pig iron production; so that, in view
f the further fact that in about half of the period under consideraion
 an increasing emigration to the United States follows relatively
ood crops, there is scant evidence to support the theory that cyclical
 fluctuations in emigration from Italy are largely due to crop
onditions in the ur
The coefficient of correlation between crop¥values and pig iron production, when
oncurrent items are compared, is 4.32 with a “probable error” of 4.11; and between
rop values in calendar years and Italian immigration to the United States in the respective
 years ending six months later is + .31 + .11.
2The relationship between the three series under discussion may also be expressed in
ustomary mathematical terminology, that is, by stating the coefficients of correlation,
which are +.50 + .09 for pig iron production and immigration from Italy in the fiscal
ear ending six months later; and only 4.31 + .11 for the corresponding comparison
between Italian crop values and immigration from Italy.

202