. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
is suggested by incidents which took place in the years 1920 and
1921. In hearings before the House Committee on Immigration
and Naturalization in April, 1920, it was testified that “there is a
labor shortage in practically every industrial activity. It amounts
to not less than that of 5,000,000 men. In addition there is a dearth
of agricultural labor and of domestic servants to an extent difficult
of calculation.” And it was urged that under the circumstances,
“a policy looking to the exclusion of the immigrant would hamper
and curtail our natural development and lead to a world-wide
calamity.’’s
Within a few months after the above testimony was given, it was
obvious that industry was entering a depression period, and in
September, 1921, the President’s Conference on Unemployment
met in Washington to consider measures for the relief of from “four
to five million unemployed resulting from the business slump of
1921.7
It seems a far cry from circumstances which could by
anyone be interpreted as indicating a shortage of at least five
million men to a condition where, in contrast, the numbers of un-
employed are estimated in terms of millions. It would appear
desirable that a more definite connotation should be given to the
terms “labor supply” and ‘labor shortage,” and that particular
consideration should be given to the relation of the business cycle
to the validity of estimates of surplus or shortage in the supply of
labor. Such, in part, is the purpose of this study.
The Long-Time and Short-Time Points of View.
In seeking to determine the relation of migration to the demands
of industry for man-power, a distinction may well be made between
what may be appropriately designated, respectively, as the long-
time and the short-time points of view. From the long-time point
of view we are concerned with the relatively permanent adjustments
in industry which are hampered, furthered, or necessitated by
changes in the volume of immigration. To treat this phase of the
Statements included in a memorial adopted at the National Conference on Im-
migration, and submitted to the House Committee by Mr. Marshall. U.S. Immigration
and Naturalization Committee (House) Hearings, 66 Con., 1-3 Sess., 1919-1921, p. 38.
This estimate of 5,000,000 shortage was apparently obtained by computing the net
immigration which would have taken place if the 1914 rate of immigration and emi-
gration had continued, and making an additional allowance for the shorter hours in
industry in recent years.
*National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycles and Unemployment, Fore-
word by Herbert Hoover, p. v.
24.
