. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
the course of the employment curve. A drop in the pig iron curve 
in 1892 suggests a recession in industrial activity which may account 
for the immigration slump later in that year; also, pig iron produc- 
tion shows a decline in 1911 which harmonizes well with the migra- 
tion slump in that year. 
In some respects pig iron production is a better index of em- 
ployment opportunity than our index of factory employment. 
Iron is basic to many industries, including, for example, building 
construction, for which we have no adequate direct statistics of 
CHART 14 
CycricaL FructuaTioNs IN MALE IMMIGRATION AND Pia Iron 
PropucTioN: 1890-1914. 
Three-month moving averages of deviations from trend, corrected for 
seasonal variation. Unit=one standard deviation 
0 EAT J 
20} or 9 
0 
10 ; 
ol 
SOB 1/05 48s ve 553 1661/57 TRE 5091/0000 0 100 1500 0 owe 360: + 115001 90s (5 ers 0 | 
«The numerical data for the male immigration curve are in Appendix Table IIT; 
the pig iron curve represents a three-month moving average of the data in Appendix 
Table VI, expressed in multiples of their standard deviation, 17.13 per cent. 
employment. It also has a wider geographic scope than the em- 
ployment index. The evidence, therefore, of similarities to the pig 
iron curve should strengthen the conclusion previously reached to 
the effect that male immigration fluctuates in rather close sym- 
pathy with employment, but lags somewhat, though apparently 
only two to four months. 
Clearings index. Co 
A comparison was also made between male immigration and an 
index of business prepared by Mr. Carl Snyder of the Federal 
Reserve Bank of New York.: This index is based on bank clearings 
outside of New York deflated by a general index of prices designed 
sJournal of the American Statistical Association, September, 1924, p. 335. 
04