CURRENCY AND PRICE MOVEMENTS 111 
at the end of the 19th century and at the beginning of 
the 20th century; the rise in prices during the war (and 
the fact that in some countries it appears to be in pro- 
portion to the expansion of the currency) ; and the fall in 
prices after the war. 
But this general concordance does not show there is 
in all cases an obvious relation of cause and effect ; for 
other factors may have influenced prices, chiefly, in the 
16th century, the valorisation of currencies at too high a 
point, war and famine. From 1914 to 1918 the war may 
have given rise both to the issue of paper money for 
financial reasons, and, by limiting production, to the rise 
in prices. Similarly, the end of hostilities may account 
both for the stoppage of inflation in the period immedi- 
ately after the war and for the fall in prices consequent 
upon a return to normal production following a crisis. 
In this case, as has been pointed out, definite reservations 
must be made because (1) the fall in prices preceded 
currency contraction and (2) it was much more than pro- 
portional to this contraction. Conversely, a fresh rise in 
prices occurred in 1923, particularly in F rance, when the 
circulation was more or less constant. 
Again, it must be admitted that at times when the rise 
in prices was much smaller, especially at the end of the 
19th and beginning of the 20th century, non-monetary 
factors such as the raising of Customs duties and indirect 
taxes and the limitation of competition among producers 
might perfectly well have sufficed to account for the 
phenomenon. A detailed examination with a view to 
determining the other factors in the rise in prices would be 
necessary in order to estimate the probable effect of the 
monetary factor—or to discard it. The same remark applies 
to the comparison between the rise in prices in various 
countries during the last period of the war, but with this 
difference that still other factors, especially the exchange, 
are partly responsible for explaining the differences. 
And so, apart from periods of great disturbance—when 
the monetary factor is not alone responsible, and which 
are therefore also subject to some reservation—it appears