288 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
was accomplished with unexpected success and finality. There- 
after, however, the movement of specie became indecisive. Some 
years showed a flow toward the United States, some years a flow 
the other way; nor do the alternations stand in any clear relation 
to the movements of prices or of merchandise imports and exports. 
The gold supply of the country did indeed steadily gain. But it 
grew by the simple process of the retention within the country of 
the product of the domestic mines. This indeed, thru the entire 
period from 1879 to the World War, was the process by which the 
United States procured the great stock of the metal on which its 
currency system rested. 
It may be maintained, of course, that in this indirect fashion — 
the retention of its own product of gold — the country simply got 
its distributive share of the world’s existing and accruing stock of 
gold, and that the entire process can be analyzed in ready con- 
sonance with the traditional theory. So it may be; there is not 
necessarily a conflict between the theory when applied with dis- 
crimination, and the facts when carefully examined. It does 
appear, for example, that immediately after the first two or three 
years (1879-81) the inflow of gold ceased ; that there was then for 
a few years an even balance between imports and exports of the 
metal; and that during the subsequent stage of heavy borrowing 
(1885-89) there was again a substantial inflow. On the whole, the 
decade showed a large net gain of gold thru imports, over and above 
what was got from the domestic mines. It is to be noted, too, that 
during the second half of this decade — at the time when borrowing 
again was large, 1885-89 — the merchandise imports rose, while the 
excess of merchandise exports grew less, and in one year (1888) even 
ceased. All this is in accord with the presumable effects of borrow- 
ing. But the supposed succession of events is not to be clearly 
made out. It does not appear that the large increase in the coun- 
try’s gold holdings preceded the increase of imports or preceded the 
rise in domestic prices. A detailed examination of all the several 
phases might yield results confirmatory of the familiar reasoning, or 
might suggest considerable modification or correction. I suspect 
the latter is quite as probable as the former; but suspect also that