300 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
ments! The period covered in them is that from the resumption 
of specie payments in 1879 to the outbreak of the Great War. 
Chart I shows the course of the prices of imported goods and of 
exported goods. The general movements are such as might be 
expected. Allowing for cyclical variations, the trends for both are 
CHART 1. 
[IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICES, UNITED STATES, 1880-1914. 
Toi 
N 
3 
a 
AL 
of 
'n- 
¥ 
[iy Nenmm—e 
1880 
I —— 
sas sansinssssabas 
sud 
» 
suJlU 
45 
Export prices 
Import prices 
Base, average of 1903-13. 
1900 
es emi 
1905 1910 1914 
downward from 1879 to the close of the century ; then, after 1898, 
upward until 1914. This was the general course of prices the 
world over during the thirty-five years. In the United States 
import prices fell somewhat faster than export prices during the 
earlier stage, more especially in the very first years (until 1885). 
During the later stage there is no significant divergence between 
the two: the trend is the same. 
1 See the paper by Mr. T. J. Kreps in The Quarterly Journal of Economics for 
August, 1926 (Vol. 40, p. 708), where the figures are given in detail and the mode 
in which they were calculated is explained. The figures most important for the 
present purpose are reproduced in Appendix III, p. 416. 
The inquiry on this subject, suggested to Mr. Kreps by myself, proved to be 
much more laborious and difficult than anticipated ; and the perplexing statistical 
problems were handled by him with high ability. The results, I may add, are 
significant not only for the problems of international trade, but also for statistical 
technique and monetary theory.