SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETc. 1163

Union (!). For the United States we have projections made
for both consumption and production. Only one aspect of the
production projections will be reviewed, namely crop yields.
It is assumed that the goals for the Soviet Union represent
projections of attainable output. For both the United States
and the Soviet Union the projections will be related to actual
experience.

A. Projections for the United State

I. Consumption of agricultural produc.

[ shall describe and comment upon only two of the numerous
 projections of consumption of agricultural projects. One
projection was made in 1948 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture
 and was for the average of the period 1955-65. I have
assumed that the data for the year 1960 represent the average
for that period. The other projection was made by REx F. DALY
of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and was published in
1956 and the projections were for 1960; this study also included
projections for 1975 but these are not considered here.
Basically the two studies projected the consumption of agricultural
 products on the basis of a model in which population
and per capita income were projected for the specified period.
Then the consumption of agricultural commodities was estimated
 from studies of income elasticities of demand and other
information concerning trends in relative demands. In order
to eliminate the effects of errors in population projections, all
data on consumption are here presented on a per capita basis.
In Table 4 I present certain of the underlying data on po-()

 T wish to acknowledge my obligation to Professor JaMEs BONNEN
of Michigan State University who brought together much of the material
on the U.S. projections

3

Johnson - pag. 23