[106 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 
For purposes of planning it is necessary to deal with actual 
figures and not merely in percentages. The population of India 
is expected to increase to about 650 million compared with 
about 430 million in 1960. (This, of course, is the population 
projection for 1975 on plausible assumptions, and not a target; 
in fact, if it were possible to bring about a reduction in the 
rate of growth of population, Indian planners would no doubt 
adopt a much lower figure as a target). The number of second 
lowest decile group of households in 1975 would be about 
12.5 million on the basis of about five persons per household. 
To attain a target of Rs. 1,200 (or $ 240) per year per house- 
hold, the aggregate income of the second lowest decile group 
of households would have to be Rs. 15,000 million. If it is 
assumed that this group would still continue to have a four 
per cent share of the total expenditure of the households (*) 
then the aggregate national consumption expenditure of house- 
holds would be 25 times greater or Rs. 375,000 million.. The 
aggregate national income of India in 1975 would have to 
be somewhat larger to allow for investments and certain other 
items. The level of national income to be attained in 1975 
would have to be somewhat more than double the target of 
income at the end of Third Five Year Plan in 1966. The rate 
of growth would have to be about seven per cent per year. 
Need of rapid industrialization: Such a rapid change (at 
a rate three times greater than that of USA) would call for 
rapid industrial expansion over a period of 15 years. 
The ultimate aim is expanding continually the production 
of consumer goods and services. It is necessary to increase 
the supply of machinery and energy for this purpose. In 
(*) In India the distribution of consumption expenditure of households 
by size of expenditure has been found to be steady (with some small fluc- 
tuations probably due to the effect of changes in prices) over the last ten 
years. The pattern of distribution of income of households by size of 
income has also been found generally to change only very slowly over time 
in most countries of the world. The assumption that the share of the 
second decile group (or of other fractile groups) of households would re- 
main practicallv the same in India in 1075 is plausible 
‘151 Mahalanobis IT - pag.