Full text : Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

1138 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28

we are also now establishing a factory to produce machinery which,
after four or five years, would enable us to set up a new ammonium
sulphate factory every year. I hope the position is clear. This policy
may not be suitable for a small country. I am not generalizing.
But in India as I have already mentioned we have 50 million hectares
of land which is sure of having enough water; we can use 25 or 30
million tons of ammonium sulphate per year at a very low rate of
dressing of 25 kilos per hectare; we may be able to use much bigger
quantities with advantage by increasing the dressing. To set up one
heavy machine building factory at a cost of foreign exchange of not
more than 100 million dollars once and for all is not taking a very
big risk.

[SARD

I just have a brief question. Do the materials that you have presented
 have reference to a large population spread over a large area?
[ am sure you are aware of the thinking which emphasizes that industrialization
 proceeds from relatively concentrated cores of activity.
To achieve major industrialization you must select a relatively small
number of points at which to start. I was wondering to what extent
this consideration enters into all the estimates and plans upon which
you report.

FISHER

In the discussion of Professor MAHALANOBIS’ paper Professor
DORFMAN raised a point which I would like to emphasize and to
which I do not think I reallv understand Professor MAHALANOBIS”
answer.
Professor DORFMAN’s point was that a proper analysis of the cost
of the program which imports machinery to make machinery to make
fertilizer must take into account the cost in foreign exchange of im-‘151

 Mahalanobis II - pag. 26
            
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