SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1147 
will be discussed in some detail below, are the factors that con- 
tribute to the decline in the relative importance of agriculture. 
These factors resvlt in an increase in output per unit of input 
in agriculture; combined with the lower income elasticity of 
demand, subject to the conditions noted above, relative labor 
employment in agriculture will decline. 
As real per capita income increases, the rate of the transfer 
of labour out of agriculture required to maintain an equilibrium 
in returns to farm and nonfarm labor will almost certainly 
increase. One reason is that the disparity between the income 
slasticities of demand for farm and nonfarm goods increases. 
À second reason is that the change in ratio of output per unit 
of input in agriculture is more likely to approach the change 
in the ratio in the nonfarm sector as agriculture becomes more 
commercialized and the quantity and variety of producer goods 
available to agriculture increase. 
There is no reason to believe that there are any forces to 
halt the decline in the share of labor employed in agriculture. 
There is only one industrial country, the United Kingdom, for 
which there is any evidence that the percentage of total employ- 
ment in agriculture has been approximately stabilized for any 
period of time. Since the mid-thirties approximately 59% of 
‘he total labor force has been engaged in agriculture. But 
during that period, the government has followed a conscious 
policy of inducing an increase in agricultural output. It is 
almost certain that in the absence of that policy relative farm 
smplovment would have declined. 
B. Economic Development and the Demand for Agricultural 
Products 
It is unfortunate but apparently true that the growth of 
demand for agricultural products is likely to be greater during 
the early stages of economic development than during the later 
5] 
Johnson - pag.