SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1147

will be discussed in some detail below, are the factors that contribute
 to the decline in the relative importance of agriculture.
These factors resvlt in an increase in output per unit of input
in agriculture; combined with the lower income elasticity of
demand, subject to the conditions noted above, relative labor
employment in agriculture will decline.
As real per capita income increases, the rate of the transfer
of labour out of agriculture required to maintain an equilibrium
in returns to farm and nonfarm labor will almost certainly
increase. One reason is that the disparity between the income
slasticities of demand for farm and nonfarm goods increases.
À second reason is that the change in ratio of output per unit
of input in agriculture is more likely to approach the change
in the ratio in the nonfarm sector as agriculture becomes more
commercialized and the quantity and variety of producer goods
available to agriculture increase.
There is no reason to believe that there are any forces to
halt the decline in the share of labor employed in agriculture.
There is only one industrial country, the United Kingdom, for
which there is any evidence that the percentage of total employment
 in agriculture has been approximately stabilized for any
period of time. Since the mid-thirties approximately 59% of
‘he total labor force has been engaged in agriculture. But
during that period, the government has followed a conscious
policy of inducing an increase in agricultural output. It is
almost certain that in the absence of that policy relative farm
smplovment would have declined.

B. Economic Development and the Demand for Agricultural
Products

It is unfortunate but apparently true that the growth of
demand for agricultural products is likely to be greater during
the early stages of economic development than during the later

5]

Johnson - pag.