Full text : Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

1154 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 72¢

study should be noted, however. In the opinion of the team,
major increases in output can be achieved only as a result of
the simultaneous introduction of a variety of improvements (3).
For example, a substantially higher yield for a crop would
require new varieties, more fertilizer, heavier rates of seeding
or planting, measures for controlling insects and diseases, and
changed methods of cultivation. Any one of these changes
may be largely ineffective or may even have a negative in-Aucnce
 in specific cases.
That it is technologically possible to increase food output is,
of course, only a necessary condition for a solution of the
agricultural problems of the low income areas. Much must be
done before the technological possibilities can be translated into
food available for an increasing population with a rising per
capita level of consumption. One of the major problems in
making the projections necessary for a development plan is
that of estimating when and to what degree the political and
economic circumstances will result in the realization of the
technological possibilities.
The last of the four factors that influence the level of agricultural
 output is the nature of the incentives available to farm
families. The incentive structure has two major elements —
the terms of trade between agriculture and the rest of the economy
 and the relationship between effort and reward as affected
by institutional factors as codified in the tenure system and the
structure of the farm organization, such as individual proprietorship.
 collective or cooperative farms.
In a growing economy, starting from a low income level,
savings in or from agriculture are an important source of investment
 funds for the entire economv. The extent, and the method

, @) Ibid. p. 18. « À few improved practices can be effective if adopted
singly, but the full benefit from most improvements can be obtained only
if they are adopted in combinations snitable for specific soil and climatic
conditions. »

“16] Johnson - pag. 14
            
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