1162 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 
gional demand or of continuing to import substantial quantities 
of food. The first alternative appears to imply a substantial 
increase in the cost of food, while the second alternative has 
important implications to a number of exporters of farm pro- 
ducts. The first alternative implies a protectionist policy while 
the second alternative would permit the region to realize signifi- 
cant gains from international trade and specialization. 
ITI. A REVIEW OF SOME AGRICULTURAL PROJECTIONS 
A governmental plan or policy depends upon projections 
of future events. Plans by private firms and individuals ob- 
viously require projections of the same general kind, though 
the degree of detail required may be substantially less. There 
are, of course, significant differences in some of the effects of 
errors in projections or forecasts when made by governments 
and private individuals. For one thing, errors made by private 
individuals may be offsetting. For another thing, errors made 
by private individuals may bring into play forces to correct 
the error, such as a decline or increase in market price, while 
a government price policy, subject to rather more slowly func- 
tioning political processes, may compound the consequences of 
projection errors. This will happen (and has) if a farm product 
price is established at a high level which results in attracting 
additional resources into the production of the product and 
the bidding up of the price of certain resources. In order to 
avoid economic distress to resources engaged in the production 
of the product, prices may not only be maintained at the pre- 
vious level but may be increased in order to provide a satisfac- 
tory income to the overexpanded sector of the economy. 
In this part of my paper I shall review agricultural projec- 
tions for the United States and agricultural goals for the Soviet 
16] Johnson - pag. 22