1174 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28

In his March, 1962 speech KRUSHCHEV also noted that the
deliveries of certain farm machines declined substantially between
 1957 and 1960. However, there appears to have been
a substantial increase in farm machinery production since
1960 - perhaps by 50%.

C. General Comment

It is fairly obvious from the above brief discussion of
projections, goals, and performance that much remains to be
achieved before specific projections of output and consumption
are to provide an adequate base for development plans. It can
be argued, of course, that either inadequate analytical and
statistical methods were used or that the goals were politically
motivated. Such an argument could be correct, but it implies
that more adequate methods are available and could be applied
in specific cases and that the political elements can be eliminated.


IV. SOME ANALYTICAL AND STATISTICAL PROBLEMS

For short periods of time, say three to five years, it appears
 that fairly accurate projections of changes in the demand
for agricultural products are possible. However, even this
statement must be qualified to exclude such effects as the Korean
 War or a significant change in the policies of other importers
 or exporters where international trade is involved.
Projections of changes in output or of the effect of specific
policy measures upon output are subject to much greater uncertainty.
 Even if we exclude the problems that may arise because
 of climatic variations, other determinants of output do
not appear as yet to be subject to reasonably adequate projec-16]

 Johnson - pag. 34