SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC.
because we do not yet have an adequate analytical or statistical
framework for estimating aggregate supply response of agricul
tural products.
In many of the underdeveloped areas of the world, data are
either lacking or of unknown reliability. If it has so far proved
difficult to make reasonably accurate projections for the United
States or the Soviet Union, one can hardly be sanguine about
the possibilities for Africa, Asia, or South America.
[ do not want my remarks to be interpreted as implying
that all efforts at projections are futile nor that projections even
though subject to substantial error are without value. It is
certainly important for a nation that it be aware that if pre-
sent policies continue then it is quite likely that farm output
will grow no more rapidly than population, for example. Such
a projection should not be interpreted that food output will
not grow more rapidly than population, but that to assume
otherwise may well result in an undesirable consequence in
the future and that alternative policies should be considered
and evaluated.
But I do not believe that projections that can now be made
possess the necessary degree of accuracy to make it feasible
to rely upon detailed planning procedures which largely sup-
plant the operation of the market. There are many limitations
in the way the market functions, but there is abundant evi-
dence that there are also many limitations involved in the
execution of detailed and centralized plans.
There is a strong and convincing case for many types of
governmental action that will make economic growth more
rapid and less costly in terms of current consumption. In-
cluded in such actions are certain obvious candidates — pri-
mary and secondary education for the rural population, re-
search and adult education, improved market information,
sanitation and health measures. These are measures that im-
prove the quality of the human agent and provide the rural
population with the means for rational decisions. In particular
"16°
Johnson - pag. 3:
