SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 
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duction functions are key areas of theoretical and applied work 
where econometric methods have been well established for a long 
time and where they are in every day use both at micro and macro 
level. Macro problems, again speaking broadly, are on the whole 
more complex and difficult, and the econometric methods are here 
far from having the firm grasp on the problems as at the micro 
level. The theme of our Study Week is an inspiring challenge to 
report on the present status of econometrics in the treatment of 
economic growth and business cycles, the two major areas of macro 
analysis. It is safe to say that as the avenues of quantitative ana- 
‘ysis and econometric techniques have broadened in these areas, it 
nas gradually become more and more clear that the two groups 
of problems involve a highly complicated network of interrelated 
phenomena, the conclusion being that the problems are not ame- 
nable to simple and easy solutions. The spearheads of research and 
applied work have moved forward in significant steps, marked by 
successful attacks on a number of partial problems, but I think 
everybody will agree that the successes have as yet only been 
partial. More specifically, no integrated model of business cycles or 
economic growth has as yet been reported which has been successful 
in the qualified sense of passing the purgatory of a strict predictive 
test (see the third section in my report « Toward a verdict on ma- 
“roeconomic simultaneous equations » to the Study Week). Well to 
note, the emphasis of this statement is not on the shortcomings of 
existing models — personally I am convinced that the road is well 
paved for continued progress, and the goal of reliable predictions 
will be reached in due course — on the contrary, the emphasis is 
on the partial results thus far established. It seems to me that eco- 
nometrics by now has reached an intermediate stage between micro 
and macro. Micro analysis is well consolidated with regard to pro- 
blems, methods and results; Professor JoHNSON’s brilliant report 
's ample evidence that econometrics is now mastering macro ana- 
lysis in the sense of economy-wide approaches, and it is appro: 
priate to see this as an intermediate level of macro analysis since 
ne is dealing with the agricultural sector, thus making a partial and 
‘16] Johnson - pag. 53