SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 120-The

 implementation analysis is a study of the kinds of
national or international institutions most helpful in bringing
about that particular constellation of the national or world
economy which has emerged as the optimal one in the selection
analysis, or at least to bring about a close approximation to
‘hat constellation.
The selection analysis must precede the implementation
analysis. If we go about it the other way, we would be putting
the cart before the horse. The selection analysis must be built
on a quantitative decision model, as distinct from an explanatory
 model or a forecasting model. This will, I believe, be a
distinctive feature of the econometric planning work of the
future, since our main concern will be research work on how
‘he economy can best be steered.
In the technical part — which I shall not discuss in detail
here — a serious warning regarding a very popular « planning
procedure » is in order. It is a procedure that owes its popularity
 more to its simplicity than to its real relevance for true
olannine.

I am referring to the popular procedure of initially guessing
at a « reasonable » national growth rate that « could probably
be obtained », and from this assumption drawing conclusions
regarding the production needed in special sectors of the economy,
 the size of needed investments, etc. The reason why
this method has become so widely used is to be found, I think,
in its simplicity rather than in the fact that it is realistic and
rational.

The special aspects of the economy, such as production in
the various sectors, the size of investments, etc. are, in fact,
not determined even if the national rate of economic growth is
given. There may be many different development patterns that
all give the same rate of growth of GNP (The Gross National
Product) or of some other statistical measure of which one
mav think.

[17] Frisch - pag.

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