Full text: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENWNTIARVM SCRIFTA VARIA - 28 
The politician will not even understand what is an admissible region. 
You must put up to him some questions that are much simpler. 
[hese simpler things are precisely what is included in the interview 
technique I have suggested. 
Prof. Worp, in the first part of his intervention, was so much 
in line with my own thinking that there is no need for me to go 
into that question at all. 
Subsequently Prof. WoLD mentioned the deterministic approach 
as compared to the stochastic approach. As I have said, I am abso- 
lutely in agreement with him on the ultimate need for introducing 
‘he stochastic viewpoint. WoLD rather had the feeling that we had 
to introduce the stochastic viewpoint already from the beginning. 
Then he said that if we don’t do that our analysis won’t be a 
dash forward but rather a dash backwards. My answer is: if we try 
to introduce the stochastic viewpoint from the beginning in these 
immense models we are facing an impossible task. There will be no 
dash at all, whether forward or backward. The minimum factor at 
this stage is a technique of handling a great number of variables. Re- 
garding the ultimate goal there is complete agreement between Prof. 
WorLp and myself. Ultimately we will need multivariables techniques 
combined with probability theory. 
LEONTIEF mentioned a very important point. He spoke about 
olack markets. There is always a danger of developing black-mar- 
kets or grey markets. Particularly so if you stick to the traditional 
money economy with prices that move according to where the wind 
blows. If there is an excess supply, the prices decline, and if there 
is an excess demand the prices rise. And that is that. If you use 
some sort of price regulations, you are bound to encounter a ten- 
dency forward grey markets and black markets. My answer then 
will be this: In the first place, you must remember that I am not 
speaking about trading prices in the ordinary monetary sense. Cer- 
tainly you must have money to buy the small everyday things, but 
this after all is a minor problem. I am speaking about the accounting 
medium derived from the selectionally optimal prices to be applied 
to the big questions of influencing the policy of individual plants, and 
17] Frisch - pag. 32
	        
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