SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC.

477

the following year we then have

+R
22x, + Mk
k=)
=x +
x2=from

 which it is evident that the savings ratio in successive
years moves gradually from x, to

(5.4)

h

"ie

-

| a) «+ d)

Take, e.g., p equal to 3 or 4 years, b slightly above I, and ¢
a small positive number [which is tantamount to saying that a
successive change in the savings ratio, x,- x,_;, is considered
much less serious than a discrepancy y, (between actual and
desired consumption increase) of the same size]. Then

(5.5)

b?+
ble+g

sil

so that À according to (5.2; 1s approximately

(5.6)

i.e., about 0.8 when p is about 3 years or so. Then the limit
(5.4) to which the savings ratio approaches is about 3 times

[71

Theil - pag. 13