SEMAINE D’ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 
48, 
different degrees of uncertainty (*). The values of the standard 
deviations are of course on the high side when they are con- 
sidered as describing a distribution relating to population 
changes; but this is hardly relevant in the present connection, 
since the random elements of this study should be regarded as 
representing uncertainty in development problems in general. 
The autoregressive scheme (5.7) is started up with a value for 
vo — v, which is a random normal variable with zero mean and 
a variance equal to 2 times the variance of the e’s. It is easily 
verified that this is the variance of v,-v for any t when we 
assumed that the autoregressive scheme has been in operation 
since Adam and Eve. 
The b-value chosen is 17; in accordance with the remarks 
made at the end of Section 2. For the capital-income ratio (g) 
we take 3'/; years. The coefficient g of the preference function 
(3-7) is put equal to 0.1, which means that a change |x, - x,_,| 
in the savings ratio is considered ten times less serious than 
a discrepancy y, (between desired and realized log-change in 
per capita consumption) of the same size. 
It would go too far to mention all results for all countries 
in all years separately. One sample case is presented in 
Table 1. It shows that the savings ratio is increased from 10 
to almost 139, in the first year, to almost 159, in the second 
year, and so on, after which the further increases tend to be- 
come smaller and smaller. In some years there are decreases 
rather than increases. After 50 years the savings ratio is close 
to 30%. In the first two years there is a decrease (between 1 
and 2% ) in per capita consumption, witness the negative values 
*) Note that the ¢’s generated are identical for each triple (apart from 
an adjustment such that their standard deviations are 0.005, 0.01 and 0.02, 
respectively). That is, for each country i and each year t (where 
t, t=1, ..., 50) one single g is generated. This was done to guarantee a 
rserfect ceteris paribus situation for the three different standard deviations 
4 
Theil - pag. 
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