SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC.
“DELS, POLICIES AND PL.NS
MODELS
The purpose of building a model of anything is to under-
stand how the thing works and, if possible, to make it work
better. As BALL has argued [2] in reviewing the model of
sconomic growth that I and my colleagues are working on in
Cambridge, the great thing is to make a start and to follow
this up by intensive work on the less satisfactory components
of the initial version. It is a mistake to try to perfect all the
components at the outset. Such an attempt may easily result
in no model at all, for one never achieves initially a degree of
oerfection in the components that makes one entirely happy
about leaving them alone. Furthermore, as he says, the ade-
quacy of particular types of relationship can never be properly
judged in isolation but should be evaluated in terms of their
role in the complete model. Our motto. therefore, is solvitur
ambulando.
[he decisions to be taken in building a model can be
grouped under four main headings: a) the variables with which
‘he model is concerned; b) the relationships by means of which
‘he variables are connected and the precise form that these
relationships are to take; c) the statistical and other methods
oy which the parameters in the relationships are to be estim-
ated; and d) the methods of numerical analysis to be used in
calculating the parameters and the unknown elements in the
svstem. Let us now look at each heading in turn.
a) Variables. The basic concepts of economics are pro-
duction. consumption and accumulation. to which mav be
"11 Stone - pag. 7