Full text: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 85 
follows from the invariante of the composition of the labor 
force (1). 
Any assumption concerning the amortisation function <(6) 
of primary income can therefore be tested against observed 
realitv from three points of view: 
2) The composition of global production P* in terms of con- 
sumption goods and investment goods, and the amortisation 
schedule for investment goods and durables; 
b) The structure of reproducible capital; 
cr) The composition of the labor forc.. 
3) The shape of the amortisation schedule ç,(6) for any 
particular economic sector i generally bears little relation to 
an exponential curve, at least for sufficiently low values of 6. 
7:(0)d0 represents the share of primary income which will 
emerge in consumed income during the interval 6 to 6 +de. 
But, taking steel manufacture as an example, the industry’s 
output can only enter final consumption after a period of at 
least some months; it must first pass through a number of 
intermediate stages. It follows that primary income absorbed 
by the steel industry can only emerge into final consumption 
after a certain lapse of time. The function ¢(8) thus starts 
with a value of zero, grows, reaches a maximum and then 
declines. The same is true of the majority of economic sec- 
tors (3). 
Naturally, 
333-1) 
R.ÿ(0) = 4 R oi 9," 
where R,; 1s the primary income devoted to sector 
() § 120. 
() The shape of the majority of ¢(0) functions is therefore similar to 
that of the function « (0) which corresponds to the para-exponential model 
>xamined in annex (Section II A, $ 520 to 524). 
- oq 
Allais - pag. 135
	        
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