IOO

WAR  BORROWING

going,  in  the  nature  of  periodic  but  progressive  increase. ­
  Reduced  to  graphic  form,  it  represents  the
appearance  of  a  series  of  irregular  mounting
plateaus  —  the  high  point  of  each  of  which  has  been
less  than  the  low  point  of  the  one  next  succeeding.
The  stages  have  corresponded  with  the  four  cycles
of  our  financing  —  the  central  incident  of  each  of
which,  it  will  be  remembered,  has  been  a  loan  flotation. ­
  As  long  as  payment  in  full  or  over-payment
of  installments  of  bond  subscriptions  is  permitted
a  swollen  balance  is  perhaps  inevitable  during  and
immediately  after  the  period  of  flotation.  The  opportunity ­
  for  close  adjustment  of  borrowings  to  requirements ­
  presents  itself  during  the  first  stage  in
the  cycle  —  the  period  of  certificate  borrowing.
But  even  here  the  phenomenon  of  a  mounting  balance ­
  in  our  war  financing  has  been  pronounced.
From  April  25  to  June  8,  1917  —  the  first  period  of
certificate  borrowing  —  the  average  daily  balance
was  $179,579,613  with  $135,099,128  on  April  25,
as  the  low  (omitting  May  5-9)  and  $263,888,100  on
May  12  as  the  high  point.  From  August  9  to
October  24,  1917  —  the  second  period  of  certificate
borrowing  —  the  average  daily  balance  was  $453,-748,384,
  with  $285,283,572  on  October  17,  as  the
low  and  $656,349,914  on  October  18  as  the  high
point.  From  January  3  to  April  22,  1918  —  the
third  period  of  certificate  borrowing  —  the  average
daily  balance  was  $926,391,004,  with  $653,449,458
on  January  15  as  the  low  and  $1,196,811,694  on
March  5,  1918,  as  the  high  point.  From  June  25  to
August  31,  1918,  the  fourth  period  of  certificate
borrowing  up  to  the  date  at  which  the  policy  of  the