72 The Stock Market Crash—dAnd After 
of 1928, but 5.72 per cent lower than for the second 
quarter of 1929. This estimate approximates that 
of the National City Bank. Net earnings had in- 
creased faster than the level of stock prices during 
the periods compared. 
Recession in Fall of 1929 
Moreover, the bulletin states that the recessions of 
profits during the third quarter were not ‘‘entirely 
attributable to a lessening of regular activity,” be- 
cause they included seasonal recession during part 
or all of the third quarter under the divisions of auto- 
mobiles and trucks, auto parts and accessories, busi- 
ness equipment, restaurant chains, and wearing 
apparel. Nevertheless, there was some tendency 
downward in business as a whole during this quarter 
of 1929, with indications of further recession for the 
fourth quarter. 
But the bulletin concludes that normally satisfac- 
tory earnings for the year as a whole seemed assured. 
This was because of the tremendous gain which the 
nine months’ figures revealed over the correspond- 
ing period of 1928, “which, in itself, was a high point 
of business activity for the post-war years.” 
In judging earnings for the third quarter, also, it 
must be considered that there was an unprecedented 
rate of business operation during the summer months 
of 1929, when a seasonal recession would be ex- 
pected. There would then be a slackening of pace 
for the latter part of the third quarter; yet the earn- 
ings figures indicated that the third quarter had in-