Full text : Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 255

sis associated with the proofs of (H), (I), (J) in the appendix
now indicates that, if the level 2 is prescribed only for t=c
and £=T, the optimal path bulges out toward the level of Z(p),
as indicated in Figure 10. The interpretation is roughly a-:

FIG. TQ

follows. The negative discount rate gives the greatest weight
to the per capita utility of the last generation living within the
planning period [o, T]. In response to this weighting system,
the optimal path provides for a reduction in capital per worker
(a « disinvestment » in a per capita sense) during a terminal
segment of the planning period, in order to allow for high
consumption at that time. To make this possible, all preceding
generations make a sacrifice. For the first generation, this
takes the form of heavy investment needed to increase the
capital stock more than in proportion to population growth.
For the intermediate generations, it consists in approximately
maintaining the capital stock — by continued proportional
growth — at a per capita level in excess of that which would
maximize per capita consumption.

141 Koopmans - pag. 31
            
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