Full text : Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC.

A3G

ment or the rate of profit have undergone considerable variaons,
 as shown, for example, by a coefficient of dispersion.
But the important point is that such a dispersion, if it has
taken place, has done so around a roughly constant trend.
The result is that, after a century of vicissitudes, these magnitudes
 are in 1960 practically at the same level as they were
in 1860. The case of population, per-capita income, or composition
 of demand, is radically different. These quantities may
have changed very little from one year to another but they
have always changed in the same direction. The cumulative
result, after a century, is enormous. Population has increased
five times, per-capita income has also quintupled, and total
consumption is mostly composed in 1960 of goods and services
that in 1860 did not even exist: in other words, the trends of
these variables have been irreversibly and persistently increasing,
 and are going to persistently increase in the future.
To conclude, the distinction between variables and conslants
 in the present analysis has been based on variability
chrough time. Therefore, it does not coincide, and must not
be confused with, the distinction between unknowns and data,
namely between quantities which are intended to be explained
and quantities which are accepted as given from outside economic
 analysis. Accordingly, there are magnitudes — such
as population and technical progress — which are here taken
as given from outside economics and nevertheless are essential
variables. And there are other magnitudes, like the rate of
profit, which are to be explained by economic investigation,
and which nevertheless have been taken as constant over time.

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