SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC

but recourse to available statistical material to determine

functions ¢(0) and © (0) directly, and using them to deriv

and Ô would involve such large estimating errors that the «. .-culation
 of ©, and & from the two preceding relations we
be completely devoid of significance.
It is easy to see this. For, from relations (240-5) and
'240-10) we have

(314-6)

y © «302%

¥

so that

(214-17)

3 1-0
®: (i-p)

or, putting ©, © ÿc as a first approximation

(314-8)

5,

1.-0
i-p!

It is obvious that, even where the relative error in © is
relatively low, the relative error in the difference Yc - © will
pe high. The same is true of the difference ¢ - ¢ (!). So much

(") An accurate estimate of i poses obvious difficulties; the same is true
for n. We have

>

An estimate of p in which this parameter is taken as being equal to the
rate of population growth can clearly only be a first approximation. It
follows that for small values of i and quite high values of o, the relative
error in the estimate of i—n can be fairlv large.

111 Allais - pag. 1710