Neuzeitliche Krüppelfürsorge

Das Land der unbegrenzten Möglichkeiten

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1689945052

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-102705

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Neuzeitliche Krüppelfürsorge

Place of publication:: Münster i./W.

Publisher:: Aschendorff

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 139 Seiten; Illustrationen

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Krüppelfürsorge und Gesetzgebung

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 121 the fore, inasmuch as VR-, CC- and ID-systems make use of the chain principle in extracting inference from the model. If a forecast is to span 18 months, say, and weekly data are available, a model of type (6) with weekly data would require as much as #8 links, a design that involves the danger that the forecasting errors will aggravate by accumulation; it would then be attractive to build a model of type (10) or (18) on the basis of quarterly data, say, a model that exploits the inter- relations between variables as observed during one and ‘the same period; such an approch would require only 6 links in the forecasting procedure. À specific point in this connection is that in economic statistics the observational errors are in practice relatively more important if the aggregation period is short (°); hence there will be a downward tendency in the magnitude of regression coefficients, and the accuracy of the forecast will not be optimal if the aggregation period is too short. To put it otherwise, if the disaggregation goes too far it works against the law of large numbers, and thereby attenuates the inference from the model. This is just one aspect of the problem what period of aggregation is optimal in the design of the model, a highly important, many-faceted and difficult question that falls outside the scope of this brief review. The chain principle is a unifving feature of VR- CC- and [D-systems. More specifically, the forecasts are generated by the chain principle as applied to the reduced form, and this has the same mathematical structure in all three models, as seen from (8)-(g), (15)-(17) and (21)-(23). At the same time the chain principle brings in relief that the models work at three different levels of generalization. Thus in VR-systems (8) the primary form coincides with the reduced form; in CC- systems the primary form (12) is transformed to the reduced form (15) by a sequence of iterated substitutions: in ID-svstems (°) Ref. 15, Appendix B, discusses this point with reference to correla- tion coefficients, and the same argument applies to regression coefficients. 2] Wold - pag. 13

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation