Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1761920847

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-153170

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Hoernle, Edwin http://d-nb.info/gnd/118705660

Title:: Die Industrialisierung der deutschen Landwirtschaft, eine neue Phase kapitalistischer Monopolherrschaft

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Internationaler Arbeiter-Verl.

Year of publication:: [1928]

Scope:: 74 S.

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: IV. Der innere Prozeß der Rationalisierung

Collection:: Economics Books

458 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA , into the equational system we have to use in development planning. We have for instance investment project specifications. We will have tens of thousands of such projects. Each of them will be described in engineering terms; for instance the sequence in time in which certain input elements are to be made: labour, products from domestic sectors, imports, etc., the burden which this entails on the balance of payment is extremely important, and so on. In most cases these data can be derived fairly correctly from an engineering analysis. There may, of course, be some un- certainties and you may — according to the price situation — shift a little in the use of input elements, but let us disregard that point for the moment. The engineering analysis will — with a fair degree of approximation — give the essential information. Similarly with regard to the time and the volume in which the capacity effect of the investment emerges. If you are building a hydroelectric power station, then you can say, from an engineering viewpoint that «next year I'll have one machine coming along; the year after, I'll have two more machines », and so on. All these things are given from the engineering viewpoint with a fair degree of accuracy and there is no question of trying to estimate the possible consequences of adopting a section of these 1,000 or 10,000 projects by looking back in our time series and discussing whether a certain time series estimate will be « unbiased » or « immoral » or have some other specific property which you are able to handle mathematically, but which have little relevance for the actual problem of development planning. FISHER The last point made in my reply to Professor WoLD is of course in agreement with part of Professor FrRisCH’s remarks. There is a growing literature on Bayesian estimation in which the decision problem to be answered by the model determines the estimation technique. This is a highly interesting development and it is one with which I am in nearly complete sympathy. There are several [6] Fisher - pag. 74

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