Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 117. tion. This is true both of aggregate agricultural output and of the output of individual farm products. The factors that affect changes in output are often extre- mely complex and not too well understood. In fact, some are of a sort that are virtually unknowable. How do we know when a new variety of seed is to be available? How do we know how rapidly it will be adopted by farmers? How do we know how quickly it will be improved by more adequate adaptation to local conditions? In the United States we have learned a substantial amount about the answers to the last two questions from studies that have been made of the adoption of hybrid corn ('). While we knew that a new hybrid for another crop would probably be adopted much more quickly than the 13 years it took before corn hybrids changed from I to 809% of the seed used, we were not able to predict that the same change would occur in grain sorghums in about 3 years. Nor did we predict that the yield advantage would be as great as it was. Our original expectation was that the yield differential between hybrid and ordinary grain sorghums would be about 25% ; the actual yield differential appears to exceed 50% and may be as much as 75%. The use of trends to project output appears to be of little value. Starting with the second decade of this century, the decade increases in U.S. farm output have been as follows (in percent): IQIO-IG IQIQ-2G 1920-3 G70 . (") Zvi GriLicues, Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics Technological Change, « Econometrica », 25 (a), October 1057 7 "161 Johnson - pag. 35

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