Le travail dans l'Europe chrétienne au moyen âge (Ve-XVe siècles)

Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 183264667X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-222130

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Boissonnade, Prosper http://d-nb.info/gnd/101724543

Title:: Le travail dans l'Europe chrétienne au moyen âge (Ve-XVe siècles)

Edition:: Nouv. éd

Place of publication:: Paris

Publisher:: Alcan

Year of publication:: 1930

Scope:: II, 431 S.; Ill.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Livre II. La restauration, l'émancipation, i'œuvre et l'apogée du travail das l'europe chrétienne du milieu du xͤ au milieu du xivͤ siècle

Collection:: Economics Books

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 197 upon which the index for Italy was based, or because of peculiarities in the economic life of that country, evidence the least resemblance to the business cycles in the United States. With which movement, then—cyelical fluctuations in Italy or cyclical fluctuations in the United States—are the fluctuations in immigration most nearly comparable? A preliminary answer to this question is given by the facts presented in Chart 46, which contains comparisons of the cycles in Italian immigration to the United States, first, in the upper section of the chart, with Italian foreign trade, and, secondly, in the lower section, with economic conditions in the United States. The impression received from an examination of this chart is that the agreement between concurrent items is appreciably closer between Italian immigration and the United States industrial composite than it is between Italian foreign trade and Italian im- migration. Nor does it appear obvious that a different conclusion would be reached if a lag were assigned to the influence of economic conditions upon immigration.» In a few years, such as 1893, immigration increases with activity in Italy despite an industrial decline in the United States, but as a rule in those instances in which the index of Italian foreign trade shows marked differences from the United States industrial com- posite—as in 1876, 1888, and 1902—the course of immigration is apparently dominated by the course of economic activity in the United States. However, in some of the years in which changes in immigration from Italy are not closely similar in direction or degree of change with economic conditions in the United States—as n 1889 and 1896—some argument is afforded for the theory that activity in Italy decreases emigration, and vice versa, for in 1889 foreign trade boomed and emigration to the United States declined, and in 1896 foreign trade declined but immigration boomed. This absence of a clear and consistent relationship between foreign trade and emigration from Italy suggests the desirability of utilizing additional bases of comparison. Industrially, Italy is different in essential respects from the other leading emigrant countries which we have considered. The typical Italian immigrant comes largely *These conclusions are further supported by the coefficients of correlation, which, with their “probable errors”, are as follows: for concurrent items, only +.34 4.09 for foreign trade and immigration and +.55 + .07 for the United States composite and immigration; and, with a one year lag assigned to immigration, only +.16 + .10 for foreign trade and immigration and 4.35 + .09 for the United States composite and immigration.

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