SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC.
LHD
about 700 million dollars or a third of the cost of imported
food grains.
Imported foodgrains can be quickly distributed and it is
possible to make necessary arrangements for such imports at
short notice in the course of a year or so under normal con-
ditions of easy availability of foodgrains in the world market.
{The lack of foreign currency is the only limitation in a country
like India). The import of fertilisers, however, require placing
of orders a year or two or even more years in advance because
the supply position is not so easy as in the case of foodgrains.
Such a plan would, therefore, require taking a view of future
needs two or three years ahead.
A third possibility would be to set up a new factory every
year for the production of 750,000 tons of ammonium sulphate
per year. At the cost of about go million dollars for each
factory, the total expenditure would come to 450 million dol-
lars of which, however, only 250 million dollars would be the
foreign exchange requirement. The setting up of a new fertili-
ser factory would require at least five or six years; the process
of planning must therefore start something like 10 vears in
advance.
Finally, it is also possible to manufacture in India ma-
chinery for the installation every year of a new fertilizer factory
with capacity to produce %50,000 tons of ammonium sulphate
per year. The foreign exchange requirement for this purpose
would be less than 100 million dollars, to be spent once and for
all. However, the installation of a plant to manufacture mach-
inery for the production of fertilisers would take at least five or
six years. When the first batch of machinery is produced, it
would take another five years or so to complete the construction
of a fertiliser factory. Such a plan would require a view being
taken of future requirements at least 12 or 15 years in advance.
Consumer goods: In the case of consumer goods the in-
crease in demand is estimated on the basis of the increase of
ncome accepted as a target. Standard methods are used to
15] Mahalanobis II - pag. 13
