266 NATURE OF CAPITAL AND INCOME [Cmar. XVI
the owner of a farm takes risks as to the effect of sun
and rain and other meteorological conditions, as well as
risks of the ravages of fire, insects, and other pests. In
buying an overcoat a man takes some risk as to its effectiveness
in excluding cold, and as to the length of time it
will continue to be serviceable. Even what are called
“gilt-edged” securities are not entirely free from risk. In
a sense, therefore, every owner of property is a risk-taker.
Some persons will estimate more highly than others the
risks taken. From this fact it might seem that there
is a distinction between the actual risk incurred and the
estimate which individuals put upon it. But a little
consideration will show that this distinction is spurious;
for, by the nature of the case, chance is always an estimate.
Chance is subjective. Although one man’s estimate may
be better than another’s through superior knowledge, intuition,
or experience, the best estimate is still only an estimate,
not a certainty. In the actual world of events there is no
uncertainty. Aside from human opinion, there is no such
thing as chance. To an omniscient being, all things are
certain.
It must be admitted that this view of chance is not
familiar to the ordinary man, nor is it universally accepted
by the professed students of chance. Thus, writers like
Dr. Venn, adhering to an objective theory, regard the chance
of an event as the number of times it would occur in the
long run, out of the total series.of possible occurrences. But
no matter how long the “run,” the number of times the
event actually occurs seldom corresponds exactly with the
chance of its occurring. Even in so simple a case as cointossing,
1000 trials will not often give exactly 500 heads
and 500 tails. Yet even the “long-run” theorists regard
the chances of heads and tails as even. If 600 heads fall
and only 400 tails, the odds are not 6 to 4. To this objection
the only answer offered by the long-run theorists is
that the run is not long enough, that heads and tails are
