MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
than the United States. A complete analysis of cyclical fluctuations
in British emigration would, consequently, involve a thorough
study of business cycles in all the countries to which large numbers
of British emigrants are attracted. This is a task we have not
undertaken. However, even without an examination of economic
conditions in the countries of destination, wefcan profitably compare
the fluctuations in emigration to these ‘other countries” and to the
United States. If these two streams of emigration fluctuate in close
accord, it would be reasonable to conclude that the cyclical changes
in employment opportunity in the United States and other host
countries are essentially similar, or, as an alternative explanation,
that conditions in the country of emigration are the dominating
factor. On the other hand, if marked differences appear in the
fluctuations of emigration to the United States and to ‘“‘other
countries’ some weight is added to the other evidence tending to
show that conditions in the home country of the emigrant are not
the predominant influence in determining when his departure takes
place.
In fact, the cycles in emigration from the United Kingdom to
countries other than the United States show many dissimilarities to
the cycles of emigration to the United States, indicating that these
two movements are not clearly dominated by conditions in the
United Kingdom or they would evidence more similarity. On the
whole, the cycles of ‘other emigration” agree less closely with
business conditions in the United Kingdom than do the cycles of
emigration to the United States.u
In a few instances the relation between these two emigration
movements is not readily explained by conditions in the United
States. For example, in 1902 a boom in the United States was
accompanied by declining emigration to the United States and
increasing emigration to other countries; and in 1904 depression in
the United States was accompanied by increasing British emigration
thereto and declining emigration to other countries. As a rule, in
those years in which the direction of change in the business cycle
curve in the United States is dissimilar to that in Great Britain,
the cyclical fluctuations in emigration to the United States agree,
in direction of movement, with the business cycle in the United
This conclusion is based upon the analysis of graphs of the cycles in emigration and
business conditions, not reproduced here, supplemented with mathematical computation
of the Pearsonian coefficients of correlation, which are 4.22 + .10 for concurrent items
in “other emigration” and British business conditions, and + .42 + .08 for emigration
to the United States and British conditions.

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