IMMIGRATION PRIOR TO 1890 
Characteristics of the Period Prior to 18go. 
The period prior to 1890 may appropriately be designated as the 
agricultural frontier period, in that the existence of great areas of 
tillable free land doubtless affected materially the character of 
immigration during these decades. The data for analysis of this 
period are restricted to annual or, at best, quarterly statistics of 
immigration, with only such evidence of emigration as is afforded 
by statistics of the annual totals of outgoing passengers, virtually 
no statistics of employment, and only limited statistics of produc- 
tion. Also these seventy years are characterized by the predomin- 
ance of immigrants from northern and western Europe who 
early in the following period, even before the close of the nineties, 
were outnumbered by those from southern and eastern Europe.s 
[t is to this period prior to 1890 that we shall first turn our attention. 
Imports of Men and of Merchandise. 
A preliminary survey of the approximate relation between im- 
migration and business conditions over the entire period for which 
data are available will afford a convenient starting point for the 
more precise and detailed analysis which is possible for the shorter 
periods for which there are more adequate data. In the earlier 
decades of the nineteenth century there are no employment statis- 
tics and few records of industrial activity, but statisties of the value 
of annual imports of merchandise are available and, inasmuch as 
these vary with industrial activity in the importing countrys 
except in war years, they furnish an approximate measure of in- 
dustrial conditions. 
In Table 18 and Chart 10, we have the cycles in the annual 
statistics of immigration and of merchandise imports. The curves 
represent deviations from seven-year moving averages, and hence 
picture the condition in a given year relative to the three im- 
mediately preceding and three following years. For convenience 
in comparison the deviations are divided by the standard or typical 
deviation for the respective series. 
An examination of the evidence afforded by the fluctuations of 
immigration and imports for the whole period appears to support 
the preliminary hypothesis reached on a priori grounds; namely, 
that the current of immigration is markedly susceptible to changes 
in industrial conditions. 
5See Chart 4 on page 41. 
‘For similarity of fluctuations in imports to those in pig iron production, for ex- 
ample, see Charts 6 and 7 in Chapter III. 
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