APPENDIX A.
So
summary showing, approximately, the percentage which the claims of the
whole insured population (in Approved Societies) in Great Britain have
borne to the ‘‘ Expectation,’ i.e., to the provision made by the existing
basis, in each of the six years 1919-24; separate results being given for
men and for women. The second is a full statement of the experience
in each of the years 1921-22-23 of a group of societies, so chosen as
to constitute as nearly as may be in respect of each sex, a microcosm of
the whole insured population. These societies included about 500,000
men and 400,000 women, and in the aggregate therefore their records
yield observations covering about 1} million years of life in the case of
men and 1% million years in the case of women. The experiences are
separately tabulated for the sexes and are given in adequate detail with
reference to age. The material was collected and tabulated by the
Minjstry of Health, and the actuarial analysis, of which summaries are
given in the tables appended to this Report, was made by the Government
Actuary’s Department. We shall refer hereafter to this experience as the
“ Selected Societies Experience.”
13. The summary of the experience of the insured population of Great
Britain is contained in the following table. The figures are not exact
since (i) it has been impracticable for the purpose of obtaining the
“ Expected ’’ cost, to take out a complete age distribution of the insured
population for each year included in the table and (ii) there are no
means of ascertaining the extent to which, on the average of the whole
insured population, the benefits have been reduced in each year in respect
of arrears. It is believed however that the percentages shown are closely
approximate to the actual facts; they are certainly near enough to them
to supply an accurate index of the general course of the experience over
the vears covered by the table.
Percentages of actual to * expected’ cost of Sickness and Disablement
Benefits in Great Britain.
Men.
Women.
V ea
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1994
“es ves “ee |
see aes ore
“ee “ee wes
Sickness.
75
65
67
74
64
74
Disablement.
&
eS
42
47
56
64
7
S0
Sickness.
71
72
8&0)
C
06
Disablement.
81
94
116
130
146
161
14, Men.--Looking first at the men’s experience it will be seen that
the claims for sickness benefit have varied curiously between two levels,
the higher of which has prevailed in the years 1919, 1922 and 1924 and
the lower in the years 1920, 1921 and 1923. The higher level is probably
explainable by the claims incidental to epidemic sickness, and the
character of the fluctuations is such as to create doubt as to whether
under existing conditions—including the liability to frequent and some-
times severe visitations of influenza—an experience of even six years’
claims is sufficient to give a reliable average. In any case it enforces
the need for retaining a reasonable margin if such average be adopted
for the purpose of a new basis.
15. The experience of disablement benefit has followed quite a different
course, the claims have constantly risen and in 1924 (assuming that in the
Meantime the expectation had not greatly changed) were nearly double
those of the year 1919. The relative magnitude of these fioures compared