PREFACE 
Thuis book is the outgrowth of several years’ study 
of the stock market consequent on the publication by 
me, in the newspapers, of weekly and daily index 
numbers of stock prices, sales and values. 
In trying to appraise the market crash during the 
autumn of 1929, I have made use of all sources of 
information available to me to date. 
Readers will doubtless find some inconsistencies 
between my previous writings and the present book, 
as I have modified my opinions from time to time 
with the march of events and with the unfolding of 
evidence. I may, and probably shall, further modify 
them with subsequent developments. 
The book is in no sense, therefore, an attempt to 
justify opinions hitherto expressed. It has been 
written without reference to any previous expres- 
sions. I had stated my opinion in September, preced- 
ing the panic, that the market had reached its peak, 
as proved to be the case. I also expressed the view 
that the recession would not be in the nature of a 
serious crash, in which I was mistaken. I also pre- 
dicted that the new plateau of stock prices would 
survive any recession. This has proved true (see 
Chart 4). 
1 have also tried in this book to set forth the chief 
ri