INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 197
upon which the index for Italy was based, or because of peculiarities
in the economic life of that country, evidence the least resemblance
to the business cycles in the United States.
With which movement, then—cyelical fluctuations in Italy or
cyclical fluctuations in the United States—are the fluctuations in
immigration most nearly comparable? A preliminary answer to
this question is given by the facts presented in Chart 46, which
contains comparisons of the cycles in Italian immigration to the
United States, first, in the upper section of the chart, with Italian
foreign trade, and, secondly, in the lower section, with economic
conditions in the United States.
The impression received from an examination of this chart is
that the agreement between concurrent items is appreciably closer
between Italian immigration and the United States industrial
composite than it is between Italian foreign trade and Italian im-
migration. Nor does it appear obvious that a different conclusion
would be reached if a lag were assigned to the influence of economic
conditions upon immigration.»
In a few years, such as 1893, immigration increases with activity
in Italy despite an industrial decline in the United States, but as a
rule in those instances in which the index of Italian foreign trade
shows marked differences from the United States industrial com-
posite—as in 1876, 1888, and 1902—the course of immigration is
apparently dominated by the course of economic activity in the
United States. However, in some of the years in which changes in
immigration from Italy are not closely similar in direction or degree
of change with economic conditions in the United States—as n
1889 and 1896—some argument is afforded for the theory that
activity in Italy decreases emigration, and vice versa, for in 1889
foreign trade boomed and emigration to the United States declined,
and in 1896 foreign trade declined but immigration boomed. This
absence of a clear and consistent relationship between foreign trade
and emigration from Italy suggests the desirability of utilizing
additional bases of comparison. Industrially, Italy is different in
essential respects from the other leading emigrant countries which
we have considered. The typical Italian immigrant comes largely
*These conclusions are further supported by the coefficients of correlation, which,
with their “probable errors”, are as follows: for concurrent items, only +.34 4.09 for
foreign trade and immigration and +.55 + .07 for the United States composite and
immigration; and, with a one year lag assigned to immigration, only +.16 + .10 for
foreign trade and immigration and 4.35 + .09 for the United States composite and
immigration.
