SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC.
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of view of his immediate objectives, but which might be in conflict
with different but possibly equally important objectives pursued si:
nultaneously by other policy makers.
The principal advantage of general planning and overall projec-
sions, as compared with haphazard promulgation of special purpose
policy measures, is that it permits us to avoid such conflicts,
Special purpose models which permit us to estimate the principal.
or should I say, most desired effects of one particular policy measure
but slurs over its secondary repercussions is too blunt an instrument.
Consistent policy formulation requires general purpose, which is es
sentially general equilibrium models.
JOHNSON
I think there are only three of the statements that necessitate a
response from me. The first was Prof. HAAVELMO’s question, asking
whether the research needed would be somewhat different for areas
of low density than high density populations. I would argue the
difference would be fairly small and the reason is the following: in
the low density areas, which include large parts of South America
and Africa, an expansion of output which is based upon using addi-
‘ional land which can be brought into cultivation without any change
in technology will not lead to any significant increase in per capita
tevels of income. In my paper I described what happened in the
United States from 1820 to 1860, when the U.S. clearly had low-
density of population; agricultural output grew rapidly but as near as
we can tell output per worker changed very little in agriculture; and
also, although this does not necessarily follow, this was a period when
per capita income in the United States did not increase to any signi-
ficant degree. But to repeat, I would say that in the low population
density countries they also need substantial increases in productivity
per man and per acre and that many of the factors that are crucial to
prevent a decline per capita income in the high density countries also
apply there.
v, Johnson - pag. 55
