MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
differences in the curves due to differences in their degree of fluctua-
tion.
As illustrated by Fig. A of Chart 44 emigration from Germany to
the United States shows a relatively high degree of correlation with
pig iron production in the United States, but at frequent points
indicates a lag of about one year.
TABLE 50.—CvcLEs IN P16 IRON PRODUCTION IN GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES:
1870-1914
Percentage deviations from seven-year moving averages
YEAR UNITED GERMANYD YEAR UNITED GERMANY
STATES® STATES
1970...... —9.9 —11. 7 ns. YE 5. =i7.5
UST, —14.8 — 6.9 © 1896.... — 9.8 4 0.2
IR72.. 1 +22.1 11.1 1807.... TEE —'S. 18 + 0.4
LRT 2 +21.3 +21.0 | 1898... | — 0.4 | 4+ 1.6
1874... 0 +10.7 — 1.2 IER 1859.". » + 4.6 4 6.9
ARTS oe —10.2 (0. SEE 1900... . — 4.0 + 3.4
ASV, 55 —18.1 — 0. SENNARI0NT. ... § + 3.5 — 9.5
IST hs —16.1 — 8.7 1902.5... + 5.2 — 8.0
1878 ne, —15.2 5 olR005. SiR + 3.2 + 2.4
R79... —11.1 — 9.3 1904. ... —18.8 — 3.0
1880..." +10.4 + 1.001905... +13.1 0
ISBT. a +10.1 —{), SEREENT006. . . . +17.8 + 7.2
ISS. on. +15.2 = 7.51007... +13.1 + 6.0
1883... + 3.7 + 4.2 1908.10... —33.1 — 9.7
1884..." —14.6 + 2.4 1009... + 4.1 — 8.2
1885. 1... . —21.2 — 0.8 1910. : + 6.7 — 1.7
L880. + 2.2 00) TAIT]. — 6.3 + 2.1
ISST7., Fal + 3.2 — 0.7 1912... + 9.1 +12.1
[88S iu — 4.8 + 3.3 L131. + 6.1 +17.0
1880... + 0.7 4 3.3 1914.... —24.3 —14.2
1300.5... +18.7 + 1.6
ISG. + 6.3 — 2.9
ISO2.. 0. +11.5 — 01
1893... ... —14.7 —_
1894... —20.9 — 2.
sComputed from data in Table 12-A.
bComputed from annual statistics published in Volkswirischaflliche Chronik-A bdruck aus den Jahrbiichern
fir Nationaldkonomie und Statistik and in Stahl und Eisen.
Likewise, in Fig. B, we find evidence of a tendency for activity
in the iron industry in Germany to coincide with the fluctuations
in emigration, but with less definite indication of alag in emigration.
15The Pearsonian coefficients of correlation are (1) emigration and pig iron in the
United States, +.57 + .07 if no lag is assigned, and 4.44 + .08 with a lag of one year
ascribed to emigration; (2) emigration and pig iron in Germany, +.58 +.07 with no
lag, and + .14 + .10 with lag of one year.
192
