1114 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 2
Adding to this the current requirement of 8 million tons for
industries, the total demand would be about 13 million tons
of steel in 1970-71. In the same way it has been estimated
that the requirement of steel would reach 18 or 19 million
tons In 1975.
Balance of electricity: It is possible in the same way to
estimate the requirements of electricity from the physical tar-
gets of production for any given year. For example, the pro-
duction of ferro-manganese in 1960-61 was 100,000 tons for
which the electricity consumed was 500 million kwh. For a
target production of 385,000 tons for ferro-manganese in 1970-
1971, the requirements of electricity would be 1,952 mil-
lion kwh. A similar method of calculation was used for diffe-
rent types of industries. Table A-3 in the Appendix gives the
details. Steel and electricity are typical illustrations of the
material balances which have been prepared in India for im-
portant commodities and energy for perspective planning of
the economy 15 or 20 years ahead.
Perspective planning of fertilisers: The population of India
ls growing roughly at the rate of perhaps g million per year.
The additional quantity of food grains required for these 9
million people would be about 1.5 million tons a year. This
would add up to 22.5 million tons in the first five year period
not to speak of 60 million tons in the second five year period).
At an average price of go dollars per ton, the cost of importing
22.5 million tons in a five year period would come to about
2.000 million dollars.
On the other hand, if imported ammonium sulphate is used,
each ton on an average should increase the yield of food grains
by about 2.2 tons. On this basis, roughly 10 million tons of
:mported ammonium sulphate would enable the domestic pro-
duction of food grains being increased by about 22 million tons
in a five year period. At an average price of 70 dollars per
ton of fertilisers, the cost in foreien currencv would be onlv
"151 Mahalanobis II - pag. 12
