MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
dicated by the industrial composites previously described, show a 
substantial degree of similarity. A tendency appears for the turns 
in the German curve to occur one year later than the corresponding 
changes in the United States composite. For example, the changes 
in direction which occurred in the United States composite in 1873, 
1879, 1883, 1886, and 1909 are comparable with the changes in the 
(German curve in 1874, 1880, 1884, 1887, and 1910, respectively. 
However, in the early nineties and again in the early part of the 
following decade, the decline toward depression becomes pronounced 
sooner in Germany than in the United States. 
The German industrial composite exhibits some noteworthy dif- 
ferences from the United States composite. In 1892 economic ac- 
tivity diminished in Germany but increased in the United States; 
and in 1896, diminished in the United States but not in Germany. 
Conditions in Germany took a turn for the worse in 1901 and 1902 
but improved in 1903; while industrial activity in the United States 
declined only slightly in 1901, improved in 1902" and declined in 
1903. Again, in 1911 Germany experienced an industrial improve- 
ment while in the United States there was a mild depression, and 
the German boom in 1912 and 1913 was more pronounced than 
that in the United States. In both countries there was a decline 
in 1904, then a rise in 1907, and a decline in 1908.13 
Emigration from Germany and Business Conditions. 
In Chart 43 we have a comparison of the cycles of emigration 
from Germany, first (Fig. A) with business cycles in Germany, and, 
secondly, (Fig. B) with business cycles in the United States. Gen- 
erally speaking, high emigration corresponds with the prosperity 
phase of the business cycle both in Germany and in the United 
States, and low emigration with depression in both countries. 
Where the movements are not concurrent, there is some evidence 
of a tendency for emigration to anticipate changes in conditions in 
Germany, as in the changes in emigration in 1873, 1882, and 1909; 
whereas changes in emigration are usually concurrent with cyclical 
12See Chart 40, p. 174. 
BThe coefficient of correlation between the composites is 4.35 £.09 if con- 
current items are compared, or +.31 + .09 if a one-year lag is assigned to the industrial 
composite for Germany. ; 
4The coefficients of correlation, for concurrent items, are +.40 +.09 for German 
industrial conditions and emigration from Germany to the United States, and -+.54 
+ .07 for such emigration and industrial conditions in the United States. If a one-year 
lag is assigned to emigration, the coefficients are +-.17 + .10 with German industrial 
conditions, and 4.52 + .08 with conditions in the United States. 
188%