1168 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 76
ceeded by 1960-62 yields in every case where comparison is
possible; the percentage excess ranged from 19 to 68 (!). It
may be noted that the 1965 projections from a study published
in 1961 were equalled or exceeded in six out of seven cases
by 1960-62 yields.
At the time they were made, the projections of the Paley
Commission were criticized for being unrealistically optimistic.
It may be noted that the lower of the two estimates (the « B »
projections), except for soybeans, have already been exceeded
by the 1960-62 yields. The last set of projections included in
the table were published in 1961. Most of the « attainable »
projections have been exceeded or equalled.
It should be noted that the yield projections have repre-
sented what might be called judgment estimates. In some
instances past trends have been extrapolated, but often the
prospective yields have been estimated by agronomists and
other agricultural scientists who are well acquainted with a
specific crop and area. The projections have been the work
of competent scientists. It is clear that the yield projections
have missed or will miss the mark by a substantial margin.
It is also fairly clear that if development plans had been based
upon these projections, serious shortcomings would have
emerged in the prosecution of the plans or certain objectives
would not have been fulfilled. For example, the number of
farm families that could earn a given level of net income in
agriculture would have been much greater than the number
that can now earn that amount if the actual yields of crops
had been at levels consistent with either of the two sets of yield
projections for 1965. Prices received by farmers would have
been substantially higher than at present. Had farmers been
induced to make their plans in terms of anticipated prices
substantially above realized prices, a large economic loss would
have been realized
Q] The 1965 yield projections from the 1948 study were exceeded in
1954-56 in five out of seven cases and almost eaualled in another.
16] Johnson - pag. 28
