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ancorrelated with lagged values of low-numbered disturbances.
Further, either B or all V(6) (A >o) have zeros evervwhere
on the principal diagonal.
If (R.1), (R.2), and (R.3*) hold, every term in (2.4) will
be triangular, so that W(o) will likewise be triangular as re-
quired. Further, W(1) will also be triangular rather than zero
and will have zeros on its principal diagonal, but this will be
all that is needed, since if B is triangular no lagged endogenous
variable appears in an equation of (2.1) explaining a lower-
numbered current endogenous variable.
Intuitively, the general necessity of no serial correlation for
the consistency of least squares is that an element of y,_, is
influenced by an element of «, ;. If that element of u,_, is
itself correlated with a lower-numbered element of #,, then the
corresponding element of y,_, cannot be assumed to be uncor-
related with that element of u,. Even if V(8) is triangular for
8>0 (or even diagonal) and B is not triangular, the dynamics
of the system will carry serial correlation into relations between
any current disturbance and any current endogenous variable.
If both V(6) and B are triangular, however, such effects are
only carried toward higher-numbered equations.
That triangularity of both V(6) for all 6>>0 and B are
generally necessary in the presence of serial correlation may be
seen from the fact that since D is triangular, the terms in (2.4)
will generally not otherwise be triangular and the fact that if B
is not triangular, even triangularity of W(1) will not suffice.
(The condition as to the principal diagonals can be easily seen
to be required by considering a single-equation model).
Of course, as is also the case for the assumption of the
diagonality of V(0), even if such assumptions fail generally,
similar weaker assumptions concerning certain off-diagonal ele-
ments may hold and yield the consistency of ordinary least
squares for certain equations. The indicated assumptions are
necessary for such consistency in all equations, however. (Such
weaker conditions are fairly readily obtained from the genera
lization of the current discussion given in a later section’
Lo
Fisher - pag.
C,